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As is tradition, the editors of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's MIT Technology Review recently unveiled a new list of the 10 most important technologies for 2024. The full list, in order of mention, includes: AI for everything, Super-efficient solar cells, Apple Vision Pro, Weight-loss drugs, Enhanced geothermal systems, Chiplets, The first gene-editing treatment, Exascale computers, Heat pumps, Twitter killers.
If in the 2023 list the authors paid attention to only one energy technology - Battery recycling and the adjacent Electric vehicles, then this year there was a real breakthrough in increasing attention to energy. The 2024 list includes three technologies directly related to energy and energy saving.

Super-efficient solar cells

Photovoltaics is one of the most dynamically developing sectors of renewable energy. In 2022, the total installed photovoltaic capacity significantly exceeded 1000 GW. In 2023, another 150 - 200 GW will obviously be added. Now, the previously seemingly unrealistic IEA forecast to achieve an average annual generation from PV sources of 6000 TWh by 2050 seems quite realistic.

Main indicators of solar photovoltaics



These figures related to renewable sources are of course impressive, since the increase in energy production in the world is largely provided by them. However, let us remind you once again that the share of fossil fuels in total primary energy production is still high and has exceeded 83% as of 2021. In other words, the new implementation of renewable energy capacities so far makes it possible to satisfy, at best, only about half of the new energy needs. Thus, the current extensive path of development of renewable energy sources cannot provide the required dynamics of changes in the structure of energy consumption. Obviously, an additional transition to intensive development methods is necessary. Modern commercial solar panels are capable of generating electricity with an efficiency of up to 22-25%. However, in fact, this is only achievable during midday hours and in regions with the best solar radiation values. In fact, the level of solar radiation varies from maximum values at noon to zero at night. Increased cloudiness, stationary orientation of solar panels, surface contamination, overheating, failures or limitations in the operation of the receiving network, maintenance stops, etc. lead to a significant reduction in electricity generation. Thus, the world average calculated capacity factor in 2021 was 13.4-13.9% for photovoltaics, according to various estimates.

However, the current boom in research into the use of perovskites to create highly efficient solar cells gives hope that in the coming years their efficiency will be significantly increased and their cost will decrease. For example, just last year, one of the leading manufacturers of solar panels, the Chinese company Longi, several times announced new results to improve efficiency. In November 2023, the company reported a new world record efficiency of 33.9% for crystalline silicon perovskite tandem solar cells. In this case, we are talking about laboratory research or, at best, the initial stage of technological testing. But here is another message from the respected publication PV-Magazine: Revkor, H2 Gemini unveil plan to build 20 GW HJT perovskite cell, module factory in U.S. This is certainly a more tangible level of decisions. It is also noted here that the target capacity of 20 GW will be achieved by 2026, and the first phase of the project with a capacity of 5 GW is planned to begin in the second quarter of 2024. This is how revolutions happen in everyday life.

Of course, including the problem of creating Super-efficient solar cells in the MIT Technology Review list is absolutely justified, not only because this problem has matured and really hinders the large-scale advancement of PV technologies, but also because its presence in the MIT list will spur the competitive instincts of manufacturers and accelerate processes for increasing the efficiency of solar energy.

Enhanced geothermal systems

This topic took fifth place in the above list. In general, this is somewhat unexpected. Geothermal energy has always been famous for its potential, which is of course enormous, but in practice it is used almost exclusively in regions of high seismic activity. Thus, in the work of one of the patriarchs of this direction, Ruggero Bertani, it is noted that the global geothermal technical potential is 5000 GWth/year for direct use and 1200 GWel/year for electricity production. However, the economic potential is several times less. Nevertheless, the numbers are very impressive. Enhanced geothermal systems are precisely aimed at overcoming this barrier.

The main components of geothermal energy



Hanging over this technology is the unprecedented success of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing in the US oil and gas industry. Suffice it to say that in 2023, approximately 13 million barrels of oil per day were produced in this country, mainly due to these technologies.

Some optimism in this regard is inspired by positive results from testing Sage Geosystems' EarthStore system in 2023 at an exploration well in Texas, where a modified huff & puff method used for heavy oil production was tested. This technique allows the injection of dense drilling fluid to widen thin cracks in underground rock, and then widens the cracks by injecting pressurized water. After the forced external pressure is removed, the hot water returns to the surface and can be used, among other things, to generate electricity. A single well was found to be able to generate around a 3-megawatt maximum output if used as a load-following fast release system, or it can release energy in a more measured way to provide 18-odd hours of power through the night when solar isn't generating.

There are other options for Enhanced geothermal systems, for example, using micro-drilling turbines or rotary drilling with water jet cutting of rock. All these methods ultimately make it possible to increase the contact area of the injected water with the hot underground rock. However, there is still no sufficient confidence in the large-scale development of Enhanced geothermal systems. It is difficult, expensive and largely ambiguous. As an example, we can recall binary geothermal plants using various organic liquids with low boiling points (Organic Rankine Cycle). 15-20 years ago this method was considered extremely promising. However, today the total capacity of such installations is insignificant.

Heat pumps

Heat pumps are another thermal energy technology listed by MIT Technology Review as one of the 10 most important technologies for 2024. Several studies predict that the global heat pump market will significantly exceed US$100 billion by 2030, up from the current US$60 billion. The main markets for heat pumps are North America and Europe. The European Heat Pump Association notes that progress in the use of heat pumps is facilitated by a number of factors, including technological improvement, which allows them to expand their operating conditions; the need to accelerate the energy transition also in heating; reduction in production costs. In addition, a number of countries, including the USA, Italy, Japan, and Denmark, have government support programs in this area.

Ground Source Heat Pump


Source: aenert.com

There are several types of heat pumps that provide specific heat output ranges. The most effective are Ground Source Heat Pump, which are predominantly widespread in a number of Northern European countries, incl. in Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands. However, almost 80% of all heat pumps are the less efficient Air-to-Water Heat Pump and Air-to-Air Heat Pump systems, which are more often used in more southern countries. This is the main vulnerability of heat pump technology, which, given the costs, significantly limits its adoption. Nevertheless, Heat Pump is a necessary and worthy component of various energy saving options, which, although it has a relatively modest impact on total energy consumption, is reliable and independent of fossil fuels.

By the Editorial Board