Aenert news. Energy Trends
Photovoltaics is one of the most dynamically developing sectors of renewable energy. In 2022, the total installed photovoltaic capacity significantly exceeded 1000 GW. A year earlier, the share of solar photovoltaics in global electricity generation from all sources reached 3.8%. Ten years ago this was hard to believe, since at that time this share did not exceed one percent. Over the past three years, the growth in electricity generation from photovoltaic sources has confidently exceeded 20%. Now, the previously seemingly unrealistic IEA forecast[1] to achieve an average annual generation from PV sources of 6000 TWh by 2050 seems quite realistic. Today you will not surprise anyone with giant PV stations with a capacity of more than one gigawatt. Moreover, their number is constantly growing. Of course, this is still far from the capacity of the largest hydroelectric power station, the Chinese Three Gorges Dam - 22.5 GW; however, this is already quite comparable with the majority of existing nuclear or thermal power plants.
Some important photovoltaic status indicators are shown on the map below. Data on electricity generation by countries around the world are taken from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)[2]. Unfortunately, there is no detailed information on solar generation for 2022 yet, so we used data from the previous year. In addition, we used statistics from International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)[3], which specializes in the collection and analysis of data on renewable energy.
Main indicators of solar photovoltaics
Not all calculation results coincide, since sometimes statistical data from different sources differ markedly. Therefore, for example, when calculating specific indicators, we limited ourselves to selecting countries with an annual generation from all sources of at least 3 TWh and only according to data from the EIA [2]. However, in general, this does not change the overall picture of the state of the industry. It has long been known that the undisputed leader of PV Power in absolute terms is China. This fact is confirmed here based on IRENA data [3]. China has the largest number of photovoltaic capacities installed and produces the largest amount of electricity. China's share in this market is significantly more than 30%. Second and third places are still firmly held by the USA and Japan. Further, the data of the first ten countries on the volume of electricity generation and installed capacities differ significantly. This is due to the territorial conditions of solar radiation, the level of technical equipment of solar stations (availability of trackers, timely maintenance, efficiency of the photovoltaic panels used, etc.), the nature of interaction with local electrical networks.
As for the specific characteristics, which are mentioned much less frequently, here everything looks completely different. First of all, this refers to the percentage share of solar PV generation to the total generation volume in the country. With a global average of 3.8%, several dozen countries around the world have a higher share of solar PV generation. Among them are a number of the largest countries in the world - India, China, USA, Japan, Germany, and Italy. The presence of such countries as Yemen, El Salvador, Jordan, Chile, and Australia in the top ten for this indicator should not come as a surprise. These regions have, perhaps, the best indicators of solar activity. Moreover, for some of these countries, photovoltaics are the most feasible form of access to electricity, especially for individual households.
However, the presence in the top ten of this list of countries such as Hungary and especially the Netherlands, where natural conditions in terms of solar radiation are much more modest, deserves respect. The leaders of the top ten are closely followed by such large solar energy producers as Germany (photovoltaics share - 9%), Japan (9.3%), Italy (9.1%) and Spain (10%). Let us recall once again that these calculations were performed based on EIA data [2]. According to other sources, these values may be significantly higher. The leaders in absolute indicators of solar PV generation demonstrate much more restrained characteristics when moving to specific indicators. For China, India, United States, South Korea, the share of photovoltaics in the total volume of electricity generation is in the range of 3.9 – 4.2%. If for China and India this is easily explained by the large population and long traditions of using coal generation, then the United States and South Korea obviously have other more competitive options for electricity production.
Guadarranque solar power plant, San Roque, Cádiz, Spain 13.6 MW. Aenert photos
Photovoltaics, like other areas of renewable energy, are designed to reduce consumers' dependence on fossil fuels. While the electricity generation sector has made significant progress over the past decade, with the share of renewable sources (excluding hydropower) increasing from 5% in 2012 to more than 13% in 2021, the situation for thermal and transport fuel consumption is much more modest. As a result, if we compare the change in the share of fossil fuels in global primary energy production over the same period, it will generally not be so significant. In 2021, the share of fossil fuels was 83.3% versus 86% in 2012; the share of renewable sources was 12% and 9.25%, respectively.
Thus, the more than tenfold increase in installed photovoltaic capacity and the fivefold increase in installed wind turbine capacity over the past decade have not led to a significant reduction in fossil fuel consumption. This is due to two main factors. First, this is due to a significant increase in global primary energy consumption. Over the period from 2012 to 2021, this growth amounted to 11% or 61.22 Btu, of which more than half - 57.5% (35.2 Btu) was provided by fossil fuels and 36.5% (22.5 Btu) came from all renewable sources. The growth of global electricity generation during this period turned out to be more significant and exceeded 25% or 5550 billion kWh (of which from fossil fuels - 38.5% or 2,138 billion kWh, and from renewable sources (without hydropower) 44.6% or 2,476 billion kWh, due to photovoltaics – 16.8% or 932 billion kWh).
These figures related to renewable sources are of course impressive, since the increase in energy production in the world is largely provided by them. However, let us remind you once again that the share of fossil fuels in total primary energy production is still high and has exceeded 83% as of 2021. In other words, the new implementation of renewable energy capacities so far makes it possible to satisfy, at best, only about half of the new energy needs. Thus, the current extensive path of development of renewable energy sources cannot provide the required dynamics of changes in the structure of energy consumption. Obviously, an additional transition to intensive development methods is necessary.
In addition, the second reason for this process needs to be mentioned here - the efficiency of energy production. Modern commercial solar panels are capable of generating electricity with an efficiency of up to 22-25%. However, in fact, this is only achievable during midday hours and in regions with the best solar radiation values. In fact, the level of solar radiation varies from maximum values at noon to zero at night. Increased cloudiness, stationary orientation of solar panels, surface contamination, overheating, failures or limitations in the operation of the receiving network, maintenance stops, etc. lead to a significant reduction in electricity generation. Thus, the world average calculated capacity factor in 2021 was 13.4-13.9% for photovoltaics, according to various estimates. Of course, this cannot be compared with, for example, Gas fired electricity, where this coefficient reaches 80-85%, and even more so with Nuclear power, with maximum capacity factor estimates exceeding 92%. This is perhaps the main vulnerability of photovoltaics. For the neighboring solar energy sector using optical concentrators (concentrator solar power) and traditional steam power generators, this problem has received a good solution with thermal storage, which allows achieving capacity factor values of up to 80%. For photovoltaics, only two real solution options are currently visible - the creation of combined stations, for example, PV and CSP, or with energy storage systems in the form of batteries.
Qinghai Golmud Power Plant: 100MW CSP Tower + 1000MW PV, Google Map
Both are still infrequently used. However, we should not forget that such measures only avoid the cyclical transmission of electricity to the external network and regulation of the load on the network during peak hours of solar energy generation. They do not provide an increase in the actual operating efficiency of solar panels. This requires a different set of measures - the use of more efficient solar converters, possibly based on perovskites, the use of solar tracking systems, optimization of solar panel maintenance and other technological innovations.
If we consider the capacity factor values for different regions, then first we should note the UAE, where this coefficient ranged from 23.5 to 29.4%, according to various estimates. For countries from the top ten leaders, the USA shows excellent results - 20-21%. The capacity factor in 2021 was higher than the world average in Greece - more than 16%, India - more than 15%, Brazil - about 15%. For the countries of Northern Europe, the capacity factor is, for natural reasons, significantly lower: In Germany, it is within 10%, in the Netherlands 8.8-10.6 (IRENA vs EIA). China and Japan had similar values - 12.7 and 13.7% respectively.
As noted above, several solar photovoltaic stations with a capacity of more than one gigawatt have been built in the world. Below is a list of these stations as of November 2023.
PV solar Power Parks from 1.000 GW, GW
Gonghe Photovoltaic Project (Qinghai, China), 3.182
Bhadla Solar Park (Rajasthan, India) 2.245
Pavagada Solar Park (Karnataka, India), 2.050
Al Dhafra Solar PV (UAE), 2.000
Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park (UAE), 1.927
Benban Solar Park (Benban, Egypt), 1.650
Tengger Desert Solar Park (Zhongwei, Ningxia, China), 1.547
Kalyon Karapınar Solar Power Plant (Turkey), 1.350
NP Kunta (Andhra Pradesh, India), 1.200
Noor Abu Dhabi (Sweihan, UAE), 1.177
Jichuan Solar Park (China), 1.030
Danangouxiang Solar Park (China), 1.020
Kurnool Ultra Mega Solar Park
(Andhra Pradesh, India), 1.000
Datong Solar Power Top Runner Base (Datong City, China), 1.000
Only five countries in the world managed to achieve this result. Most of the stations on this list are located in China - five, four in India, three in the UAE, one each in Turkey and Egypt. Several more stations are under construction. Most of these stations are located in areas of high Solar radiation and Sunshine duration.
Photovoltaics is developing at a rapid pace. Invaluable experience has been accumulated in the production and operation of photovoltaic power generation sources of various capacities. Nevertheless, it is still very, very early to talk about achieving the main goal of renewable energy in general and photovoltaics in particular, namely a large-scale reduction in fossil fuel consumption. There is still a lot of work ahead. The main immediate tasks of photovoltaics are to increase the efficiency of solar PV modules and increase the capacity factor. These tasks are certainly not simple, but they are quite solvable.
[1] Technology Roadmap Solar Photovoltaic Energy 2014 (PDF) / © OECD / IEA 2020, IEA Publishing, Licence: www.iea.org/t&c / International Energy Agency / www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/TechnologyRoadmapSolarPhotovoltaicEnergy_2014edition.pdf
[2] U.S. Energy Information Administration/ International Energy Statistic/ Nov.2023/ https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world
[3] International Renewable Energy Agency/ Renewable energy statistics 2023/ https://www.irena.org/Publications/2023/Jul/Renewable-energy-statistics-2023
By the Editorial Board
