The Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022) presented by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) examines long-term energy trends in the United States. Based on the Reference case that serves as a comparison between alternative trends, AEO2022 presents modeled projections and assumptions about future energy production, demand, and prices in the country from 2020 to 2050.
In general, EIA concluded that energy consumption will increase in the USA until 2050. The main drivers of this increase are economic and population growth, which outweighs gains in energy efficiency.
The key findings of the AEO2022 include:
- Renewables are growing fastest, but their consumption remains well below that of petroleum and other liquid energy sources by 2050.
- The most consumed sources of energy in the U.S. remain oil and natural gas.
- According to the projections, natural gas consumption will also continue to grow.
- As can be seen from the figure below, coal is the only energy source for which a noticeable decrease in consumption is projected.
- Despite the fact that the number of electric cars will increase noticeably, motor gasoline remains the most common transportation fuel.
- Throughout the forecast period, demand for electricity grows slowly, increasing competition between fuels.
- Wind and solar power are competing with natural gas in the U.S. power generation mix. This happens both through intensive incentives and by reducing the cost of technology. The share of coal and nuclear power in electricity generation will gradually decline.
- Residential, commercial, and industrial electricity consumption in the U.S. is increasing significantly, while electricity demand for transportation remains low.
- U.S. crude oil production will reach record levels, while natural gas production is increasingly driven by exports and industrial use.
- The projected growth in U.S. natural gas exports through 2050 is mainly due to increased LNG production capacity and rising global natural gas consumption.
- About half of the predicted increase in natural gas production in the U.S. comes from associated natural gas produced from tight oil fields.