Aenert news. Energy Companies
In the fourth quarter of last year, the Canadian oil industry continued its trend of achieving record production figures for both bituminous and heavy crude oil, as well as its light grades. In 2024 Q4, Heavy Crude Oil production amounted to 2.77 million barrels per day, which is 6.3% more than in the previous quarter and almost 8% more than the 2023 average. Upgraded Bitumen production increased to record levels, approaching the 1.35 million barrels per day mark. Conventional light crude oil production also did not remain without record values, although not as convincingly as for hard-to-recover grades of oil.
Such dynamics cause contradictory assessments. Of course, here we can see the desire of American and Canadian producers to receive additional dividends from the restrained position on production of OPEC countries and the restrictions imposed on Russia. Also, relatively low prices for oil products stimulate an increase in production in order to maintain high financial results. On the other hand, such a breakthrough requires serious technological reserves and stable upward investment flows. At the same time, in 2024 Q4, the intentions of the new US administration regarding tariffs on Canadian products and relations with Canada as such were not yet completely clear. Nevertheless, record results have been achieved. Obviously, already in the next quarter there will be a certain clarity in understanding such dynamics, as well as the prospects for maintaining it in 2025.
Production of Canadian crude oil and equivalent (average, b/d)
| Time/Oil | Conventional Light Crude Oil | Upgraded Bitumen | Heavy Crude Oil |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024Q4 | 687 722 | 1 347 656 | 2 767 352 |
| 2024Q3 | 673 074 | 1 296 908 | 2 602 070 |
| 2024Q2 | 682 179 | 1 146 604 | 2 629 711 |
| 2024Q1 | 663 990 | 1 288 485 | 2 611 708 |
| 2023 | 665 685 | 1 222 009 | 2 565 916 |
| 2022 | 663 328 | 1 167 172 | 2 562 568 |
| 2021 | 654 274 | 1 180 578 | 2 457 725 |
Source: Canada Energy Regulator
To provide a more complete assessment of trends in the Canadian oil industry, we traditionally present excerpts from the quarterly reports of three of Canada's largest oil companies.
Suncor Energy Inc.
Suncor Energy demonstrated record upstream production of 875 mbbls/d in Q4 2024, as well as high refining volumes at refineries – 486.2 mbbls/d. At the same time, refinery utilization reached 104%. Total oil sands production was 817.5 mbbls/d. It should be noted that the average quarterly WTI crude oil at Cushing was at 70.3 US$/bbl against 78.35 US$/bbl in the same quarter a year earlier. The price of Synthetic crude oil fell by 6.27 Canadian per barrel during this period.
Suncor Energy. Revenue, net income and share price
Source: Suncor Energy Inc.
Despite the highest production figures, a significant drop in oil prices did not allow the company to demonstrate equally high financial results. Suncor Energy's Total Revenues in Q4 2024 decreased by 11.6% to $12,531 million compared to the last quarter of 2023. Net earnings fell even more to $818 million, while in Q4 2023 it was $2,820 million.
Cenovus Energy Inc.
Cenovus Energy has a similar situation to Suncor Energy in 2024 Q4. When comparing the production results of 2024 Q4 and 2023 Q4, we can see an increase in both Total upstream production (+0.9%) and Total downstream throughput (+15%). However, at the same time, Revenues decreased by 2.5%, and Net earnings fell by 80%.
The stock market was understanding of these results and, although it responded with a decrease in the value of Cenovus Energy shares, it was insignificant.
However, Cenovus Energy's profit has been declining for the fourth quarter in a row, which is not observed in other participants in our analysis today.
Cenovus Energy. Revenue, net income and share price
Source: Cenovus Energy Inc.
Imperial Oil Limited
Imperial Oil set a quarterly production record of 460,000 BOE/d, up 1.8% from Q4 2023 a year earlier. Including Imperial Oil's share, production at its key Kearl and Syncrude fields declined, but rose sharply at Cold Lake.
Imperial Oil. Revenue, net income and share price
Source: Imperial Oil Limited
Unlike the above-mentioned companies, Imperial Oil's financial indicators in Q4 2024 were less susceptible to a downward trend. Thus, compared to the previous year, in quarterly terms, Total Revenues decreased by 4%, and Net income by 10%.
In our opinion, given the current financial trend towards a decrease in profitability from production activities and the turbulence that has begun in global markets, Canadian companies are unlikely to be able to maintain sustainable growth in bituminous oil production next year. An exception may be the first quarter of 2025, when companies will try to maximize the production and sale of oil products in anticipation of US duties, including energy.
By the Editorial Board 
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